A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
